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Chinese researchers announced, 2024 may be hotter

  Based on analysis of a dataset they developed, Chinese researchers predict that 2023 may be the hottest year on record, and 2024 may be even hotter. The study, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, was conducted by researchers from the School of Atmospheric Sciences at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou, China.

Chinese researchers announced, 2024 may be hotter
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By analyzing the China Global Coupled Surface Temperature dataset 2.0 (CMST 2.0), the team discovered that 2023 had the third warmest first half year since records began. While global average sea surface temperatures (SST) reached an all-time high in April, global average land air temperatures followed suit by reaching their second highest monthly level in June. This combination resulted in May being crowned the warmest month ever recorded in terms of global average surface temperatures, according to the study.

The study also reveals that global temperatures will continue to increase in the second half of 2023, driven by factors such as El Nino and widespread forest fires. Both global mean SSTs and global mean land temperatures reached unprecedented highs in July.

Researchers then predicted, based on El Nino's current trajectory and short-term forecast results and the extremely positive El Nino phase, that 2023 is on track to be the hottest year on record, while 2024 could witness even higher global surface temperatures. The research pointed out that as global warming accelerates, the possibility of extreme weather events and disasters increases and called for urgent action.

One of the authors of the article, Sun Yat-sen University academician Prof. Dr. “As global temperatures continue to break records, it is clear that urgent and sustained efforts are needed to mitigate the devastating effects of climate change,” commented Li Qingxiang. The CMST 2.0 dataset developed by Li's team combines more than a century of global land-air temperature data, providing an invaluable resource for climate scientists and policymakers.

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